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The term “Named Storms” refers to tropical storms or hurricanes. Hurricanes are defined as “a tropical cyclone with sustained low-level winds of 74 miles per hour or great” (CSU, 2008). The Atlantic Basin consists of the areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Season
The 2010 hurricane season is predicted to be more active than the average for the 1950-2000 seasons. The December 2009 report estimates approximately 11-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes occurring during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], which is more typical of years in an active era, such as the 1995 season.
Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray. Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2010; Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University: December 9, 2009
The forecast utilizes a statistical methodology derived from 58 years of past data and climate-related global and regional predictors. The effects of El Nino or La Nina also have an impact on the frequency of hurricanes. El Nino creates warmer water, and stronger winds that rip tropical depressions apart before they become tropical storms or hurricanes. La Nina creates cooler water, resulting in more hurricanes. Based on these facts, it is forecasted that El Nino conditions now in effect will weaken.
The early forecast for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season issued in December can be seen as a good estimate of future storm activity. The scientists at Colorado State University are hesitant to release actual storm number predictions until April 2010. Yet, this December 2009 report aims to “satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem.” This is the 27th year that the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project has released a hurricane season forecast.
Seasonal updates of the 2010 hurricane season are due out on April 7th, June 2nd and August 4th of 2010. The team will also provide two-week updates during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August through October.
New Statistical Forecasts More Accurate
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project scientists state that “we have yet to demonstrate real-time forecast skill for our early December forecasts that have been issued for the last 18 years”. However [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the team is now utilizing a new statistical forecast methodology for our early December predictions, in hopes of increasing the skill and accuracy of the report.
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Hurricane Forecasting Becomes Ever More Sophisticated
Boaters and the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season
2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season in Review
Hurricane Terms Defined
The hurricane season officially runs June 1st through November 30. Although occasional storms form before or after these dates [link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the majority of storms occur within the given dates.
Due to the fact that previous December forecasts have yet to show a satisfactory forecast skill, the December reports only issue a range of numbers and an assessment of current conditions. This assessment provides the background for the forecast in determining the likely conditions for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone presence. The specific numbers will not be issued until early April 2010.
Importance of Hurricane Season Forecasts

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