columbia vest Three killed Technical Support

hotonsell

11. Canning, removed the sign-type players. 54 black color as burning bridges, plus a red burning bridges, burning bridges is basically 50%, does not want to split also said than done.

determine the probability of some basic conditions:
license to kill,

b) 1 张 Tips probability of 27.5%
e) 4 张 Tips probability of 7.2%
g) 6 张 Tips probability of 0.85%

1) the maximum instantaneous explosive force would be great, if you see Huang Yueying the hands of nearly 20 licenses, it would not shock, that is entirely possible.
Lu Xun's late burst can be seen
consider equivalent to 1.43 per card, so Huang Yueying the number of cards in hand should be 1.913 * 1.43 = 2.74, nearly three cards. Here we can define the explosive Huang Yueying 2.74 + +, where + + contains the two meanings,
Jiang Zi, we can get the actual hand Huang Yueying increase in the number of mathematical expectation,

2. Pizhong by lightning What is the probability? Oh, run into the presence of Sima Yi, or the top of your head to the equivalent of a lightning rod, or the equivalent of you are the lightning rod, basically there is no probability. In general, the spades between 2 and 9 of spades card, a total of 17 (including five killed, four weapons, one armor, a +1 horses, six tips), the probability is 15.74 %, from the perspective of mathematical expectation, that is, touch 6 cards, including one that is, in other words, basically six to determine which will be a lightning rod. The actual game, taking into account the weapons, armor, Markey will be equipped out of this and not appear in the card pile, so the probability will be further reduced to 10.2%.
9. Big Joe, cover-type players. 27 boxes, permutations and combinations showed that only 17% of the probability of a box are not at hand, the probability of at least 83% of the sealing of an individual. Together with Sima Yi is simply a nightmare for the opponents ... ...

1) Maximum probability: to kill (with Liannu), peach (his loss of blood),discount spyder 11 way tie hair teach you selected, pilfering, Peach Garden, Lightning (will hurt yourself), Collateral, duel (will hurt yourself), southern barbarian invasion (injury to teammate), thousand arrows shot (injury to teammate), the rest of kit and equipment, only the flash and the perfect can not be used, the outbreak probability of 83.3%
the characteristics of the various characters

2. Zhen Ji, the entire explosive players. This relatively easy to calculate, 108 red and black cards there are the half that time to determine the probability of success is 50%, here to do a mathematical expectation,

1. Huangyue Ying, explosive amazing players. Before discussing the explosive, where first a state, here are the opening explosive power, explosive personally think the latter part of little significance, and the situation is complicated, can not do anything to make a conclusion. Huang Yueying explosive is the largest personal feeling, or by numbers, tips, a total of 35, 3 of which may be can not be used (1, Taoyuan, 2 by knife), where assumptions can be used. 35 tips in this, there are four out of nothing (you can change 3), 5 pilfering, 2 bumper grain harvest (which can change two), the rest of the kit can change one. For Huang Yueying for a license to equivalent Tips 4 / 35 * 3 +7 / 35 * 2 +24 / 35 * 1 = 1.43 card. Huang Yueying after the turn of the start time, there will be six cards in hand, with the permutations and combinations to calculate the following conclusion,

4. Lu Xun, the late explosive players. Lu Xun is the outbreak of the late-type players, these figures are more suitable when the Trojan Horse. With business skills that made him singled out in the late king. Even the outbreak of the probability of the largest camps for all the tips, killing, and peach can be used here simply the maximum, minimum probability of definitions,

e) Finally, note that there is no chance that Inwang shield, when Zhao Yun Guan Yu to kill you, will basically kill the red, so from a practical point of view, the two men met, Inwang Shield is a decoration.
Three types of classification

6. Zhao, both offensive and defensive players. 45 killed / flash, basically anything that can do the job.

2) the explosion in the licensing process will be used out of the destructive forces of kit can not be ignored, in the Huang Yueying just have used up all the tips after the injury often will see the main the public only a few hands, and was laughed ... ...
Tips

3. Pseudopleuronectes, pre-explosive players. This is more easily calculated, and get started hand 4, touch 2, since the loss of blood touched 6 3:00, a total of 12 cards can be, relatively low chance out of nothing, here ignored. Chance of explosion is 7.4% of peach, peach explosion equivalent to more than a card, then, so bust the mathematical expectation is 2 * 0.926 +3 * 0.074 = 2.074, a total of 3 of the blood, so a total of 6.22. Because Huang Gai is a basic set of cards, a total of 12 also, the basic no more, and 12 card can do is more limited, and it did not make the event, the next round then basically disappeared. According to a principle of blood for 2 brand, where you can define Pseudopleuronectes explosive is 0.22, but because the explosive is relatively stable, you can use 12 cards to burst Liannu, it is also loved by the role players. There is also touched by the way lord Huang Gai's play, of course, and treatment is the opposite of Huangyue Ying, Huang Gai to try to deduct the amount of blood, making Pseudopleuronectes lost outbreaks.
c) 2 张 Tips probability of 33.8%

a) If you choose the character is Guo Jia, then select the gossip shield it, those who determine the property of all your cards, that is when you have the shield gossip, others just to hit you You get a license. At this time there will be a more interesting case, equipped with a Liannu your teammates, and then let him attack you,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], when you determine the failure and blood Mopai deduction, you can kill to give his teammates, huh, huh, a little sick ... ...

b) if the presence of Sima Yi, to consider whether you are under his teammates, and if so, to consider the use of gossip, and if not, gossip becomes garbage.
f) 5 张 Tips probability of 1.2%
likely to be unstable, depending on the form field. Since the outbreak of player he is late, and the outbreak of the probability of instability, where do Comparative explosive.
1 * 0.5 +1 * 0.52 +1 * 0.53 +1 * 0.54 +1 * 0.55 ... + ... ..., can be similar to 1, the same explosive power as defined Zhen Ji 1 +, where + implies a mean , is possible outbreak of hand will get a lot of RP, Sima Yi may also be changed after the decision to get more.
Three killed technical support (from mathematical modeling technique Timor)
powerful ~~~
a) 0 张 Tips probability of 8.9%

4. When the hands have to kill a flash, it should not afford to leave any brand of blood easier? This is also depends on the court case may be,
Abstract:
we calculated the three countries the probability of kill some interesting results, including: expectations of Zhen Ji Luo 1, and Zhou Yu established an equal, if only the Luo and the heroic compare the two skills, The former is dominant. Huang Yueying expectations are not as high as imagined, is only 0.798. Pseudopleuronectes initial average of about 15 hand,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Zhou Tai is the most likely time of death the 5th determine, calculate the average worth, Zhou Tai, the average death time was 5.43.

Profile:
probability theory today, class, teacher talked about geometric distribution could not find a good example of when, standing on the podium stunned, and I was immersed in a period of good in the moment. Mountain at the foot of the month, it was dark and stormy night, as Zhen Ji Dudou my lord, to have been lost in the plot, full of blood, my lord, I looked at red blood Fuzhang to smile when I started the Luo, then Board appears on the following sequence: black, black, black, black, black ... ... lord have heard in a loud exclaimed in swallowed their anger and eventually died. With respect and admiration for Chen Ji, I tried to calculate what the expectations of Chen Ji Luo found that even with the expected result of different, so I was a hero to other RP type were analyzed, then there this hydrology.

1. Zhen Zhou Ji and Ji Zhen comparison

heartless beauty
Luo: Round the beginning, you can take the initiative to determine If the verdict is black color, as determined successful, the license reverted to hand the decision and can continue to determine; if the result is a red color, as determined failure, skills terminated. can continue until the reluctant decision to continue or determine the results into the red so far.

heroic
viceroy, Zhou Yu: Mopai stage three cards

touch Gongjin skills at a glance, more than pick up a card, and Zhen Ji will wordy and more, can be summed up in addition to already have those two, you can also touch the red until it has been touched up. We have seen a red card has been suffocated for Chen Ji, have seen the black card as fabulous as the Yan Ji rain. Zhen Ji to find out how much value the skills in the end, we calculate the number of Zhen Ji additional Mopai expectations.
knowledge of the probability theory can know the number of X Zhang Zhen Ji Mo Pai is a geometric distribution of discrete random variables, where the parameters p 1 / 2. Said Yan Ji with a number of additional Mopai expectations, there

the sum of this series is very simple

; ;

This shows that the expectations of Zhen Ji Luo 1, and Zhou Yu established an equal (Zhen Ji before I think the expectations will be smaller), just from the expected value point of view, there is no difference between the two. But given the unique nature of the three killed, especially devices such as Zhuge Liannu the existence of the power of licensing and more time increases very fast, there is a risk that the pursuit of the player's psychology, so there

; Nature 1. In general, utility function u hand the number of sheets on hand x is a monotonically increasing convex function.

properties of convex function is not difficult to prove, Zhen Ji's hand due to the effectiveness of skills than Zhou Yu's effectiveness, that is, under normal circumstances, if Luo and heroic simply compare the two skills, the former is dominant.

2. more strokes on the British hate Seclusion sister

Huang Yueying set
Touch of Zen wisdom: When she uses a Photo Tips card immediately after the touch from the top of a card deck to join hand.

I believe we all fell asleep watching Huang Yueying see the experience of playing stand-alone, with the above results, we can also try to calculate the Huang Yueying expectations. As fabricated sleeves are attractive, we will separate out the issue for discussion. First, in order to simplify the calculation, we make the following assumptions:

Assumption 1. Mopai the process model without replacement ballot. That is, any time, from the deck above the touch of a possibility of a card * p * is the number of sheets of this card in the total number of sheets in proportion. This is not only for their own Mopai that stage,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], also ignored the other hand your card to be possible. Zhen Ji in the discussion, we have used this assumption. This assumption caused the error is small. In fact, the calculated expectation is generally small, around 1, so touch a lot of the same brand Zhang probability is very small, consistent with our assumptions.

we first discuss the impact of out of nothing for the average player.
said a meeting with the p * the probability of Mopai touch something out of nothing, there are p *= a * / s, a * is the number of sheets out of nothing, s is the total number of sheets touch at a time out of nothing at least two cards is the probability of a fictitious 1 - (1-p *) × (1-p *),[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], since p * is small, do seem to take for the 2p *. The actual situation of a *= 4, s = 109, p *= 0.037. The definition of n times there is something out of nothing from nothing in the case of licensing for the n +1 order something out of nothing, so from the above reasoning we get:

Property 2. order out of nothing can be ignored.

Now we start to Huang Yueying the expectations of the number of sheets attached Mopai a. Have to do a hypothetical here, Huang Yueying can out of the kit will be all used up, while ignoring all the good harvest of (too collapsed.) After the first set of calculations using a kit with the additional number of sheets of Chi b. Next by p said Huang Yueying Tips delay the probability of non-palpable (not including out of nothing.) Geometric distribution based on similar properties, we can get relations:
; b = 1 + p × b + p * × (3 +3 b)
be solved b:
b = (1 +3 p *) / (1-p-3p *)
games, p = 18/109 = 0.165. according to the calculator was b = 1.53. Thus, we can start to a. (This is a comprehensive consideration of the general tips and fabricated enormous project ...)

a = p × p × 2b +2 p × b + p * × p * × 2 (2 + b) +2 p * × (2 + b) -2p × p * (2 +2 b)
= 0.798

results surprising, Huang Yueying expectations is not as high as imagined, only 0.798! In contrast, not as good as the determination of Zhou Yu and Diao Chan 1, Chen Ji, the average one. On this issue, we can explain the nature of a given. From b> 1 can be found, Huang Yueying once touched a kit, the potential is very adequate, and Huang Yueying in the first round of six when hand is extremely terrifying. Huang Yueying a lower average risk in exchange for a higher, that is explosive.

3. Gongjin, please, push me!

to kill the game in the three countries, there are always some people for the bad taste of a hero has a special love of violence.

Pseudopleuronectes Qingshenjianfei
bitter meat for the country: the licensing stage, can be a little less physically active, two cards from the deck. Can be used multiple times in his round of the skills.

with previous analysis, the calculation of Huang Gai is much simpler. Do first the hypothesis:
assumptions 2. (Violent Pseudopleuronectes assumptions) will be considered by Huang Gai will be in any possible state of their own into a drop of blood. Then there are inferences

Corollary 1. violence Pseudopleuronectes all peaches and Peach Garden is equivalent to nothing.

then touch \Huang Gai in the first round of violence against the conditions were not available to the average hand is approximately:

a = 4 +2 + (4-1) × 2 +12 p * × (1-p *) ^ 11 × 2 + (12 choose 2) p * ^ 2 × (1-p *) ^ 10 × 4
= 12 +1.766

calculation found that many of the hands of the initial number of sheets, p * is not small, high-end \So a hand is Pseudopleuronectes a lower bound estimate given various factors, Huang Gai's initial average of about 15 hand! Imagine such a person sitting under the lord's house shouting, \(After that we will not despise violence Pseudopleuronectes the ...)

4. Letter Chun

consequently eternal life to those who do not say.

Zhou Tai Battle of the body of
unyielding calendar: Any time you reduce the physical detained 0 or less, reduced one o'clock every physical: from the deck at the top showed the role of a card on your board, if the licensing board on the role of points and you have a card are any different, you will not die, this only as a near-death state.

in the history of the most disgusting little strong, I have nearly as Huang Gai Zhang Liannu hand toward the lord to kill, was stopped halfway under the house loyal Zhou Tai, Yingkang All kill and survive, the last being the knife Kanfan. Since then, the Zhou Tai in the end will always long to live either into rivers and lakes on the mystery ... mystery ...
compared with the first two questions, related to the calculation of Zhou Tai is not quite complex, lemma does not involve anything as long as the basic knowledge of probability theory are used to it. The total number of that card with s (here taking s = 52 × 2 = 104), starting from the dying, An said in the first n second decision is still standing after the incident, Dn, said Zhou Tai died in the first n times to determine the incident. We have:

;

the relationship between the An and Dn was:

calculated values into the data list:

and Image:

Conclusion: Zhou Tai is not so hard thing. Zhou Tai is the most likely time of death was determined 5 times, calculation of the average worth, Zhou Tai, the average death time was 5.43 (previously a statement that is 7 times). Zhou Tai was able to finally know long to live either.

discussion:
this paper,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], a hero on several RP-type probability of instructive results,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], in which Chen and Zhou Ji Thailand is basically the exact calculation, while the discussion is about something out of nothing similar, are not considered the impact of bumper harvest for the calculation of Huang Gai there is a great degree of uncertainty. Cattle were able to give hope to have more reasonable Pseudopleuronectes results.

References:
[1] Introduction to Probability Theory, Wang Renguan, Peking University Press, April 1994 1st Edition
[2] to kill the promotion version of the Three Kingdoms manual, YOKA GAMES

c) for other general people, we must consider the location of the field, and your role. If you are a lord, stay Shanba, we will fight you. If you are the enemy side, then left Shanba. In addition to these two circumstances, the court must also consider whether there is Cao Cao, this kid Intuit horrible, 3 southern barbarian invasion and a thousand arrows shot, he will be spread into the six southern barbarian invasion and two thousand arrows shot , while the southern barbarian invasion probability is 75%, if the hand is not perfect, it would kill it to take into account, so be AOE death.

c) If the birds there, and not the words of his teammates, to pay attention. Guan Yu with 54 red cards as a kill, and kill 21 black, for the number two, he had to kill 72% of the red, your shield is still considered Inwang into gossip.

3. What is the probability of being reluctant to leave? A total of 108 27 of hearts card, in which a weapon, a + 1 horse, 1 -1 horse hearts, reluctant to leave to escape the probability is 25%, but in the actual game, weapons, horse equipment will be out, so will reduce the chance of escape to 22.2%.

10. Hua Tuo, support-type players. This character is not analyzed, no license, 50% of peach, the cards, 100% of peach, simply obstinacy ah.
PS: 81 F Crosis added: If the licensing model is not unlimited, but 108 to calculate expectation is 0.98112 ~

then some other characters basically Han probability problem, not discussed here

8. Riboud, injury type players, basically a shot that is DOT.
three killed a total of 108, of which 30 to kill (to kill 21 black, 9 ZHANG killed, 70% black), 15 Flash (all red), 8 Peach (all red), 6 burning bridges, 5 pilfering, 4 out of nothing, 3 southern barbarian invasion, 3, fight, 3, indulgence, and 3 perfect, 2 Lightning, 2 bumper harvest, 2, Collateral, 10,000 arrows shot, 1 Peach Garden; equipped with a total of 20 (60% black), which +1 / -1 Ma of the 3, 11 arms (Zhuge Liannu 2, other 1), 3 Armor (2 Bagua Zhen, 1 Inwang shield)

7. Zhang, lethal terrorist-type players, and then spears with Zhangba basically invincible.
1 * 0.275 +2 * 0.338 +3 * 0.213 +4 * 0.072 +5 * 0.012 +6 * 0.0085 = 1.913

2) minimal risk: 37 kit and equipment will be able to use a probability of 34.4%
analysis,

5. Guan Yu, anti-type players. 108 cards, half red for the kill, kill 21 black plus the total number killed up to 75 to kill, not to say that basically did not kill the hands.
generals articles

d) If the presence of Zhao Yun, and not his teammates, they should pay attention. Zhao has killed 45 (24 ZHANG killed, including 15 ZHANG flash), Red 53.3% probability of kill,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Inwang shield is not handy.
other articles
d) 3 张 Tips probability of 21.3%

met Huang Yueying with that style of play under the lord, where I met a lot of weaponry to lord cut up yellow on several times, to consume Huang Yueying's hand, or at least given a warning, in fact, this is wrong to play. At least the first round do not equip weapons, it should not hit anyone, Jiang Zi Huang Yueying turn shot, they can inhibit the Collateral and the Peach Garden Kit to further inhibit the chances of the outbreak Huang Yueying.
there are even more powerful ~ ~
role explosive articles,

a) If a shield equipped, then choose to kill, blah ... ... ^ - ^, Oh, many people will forget their gear.

b) If Chen Ji, we chose the black death, black death for killing both, but also for the flash. Similarly, if Guan Yu to leave flash, all the flash is red, can be used as killing.

1. Inwang shield shield and gossip, choose which is better? This problem is caused by human factors form specific. Under normal circumstances, 70% of the black death, and gossip to determine probability of 50% (54 of each red and black cards), so Inwang defense shield shield a little higher than the gossip, but there are several cases to special treatment.

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